A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."